By Dan Dunn
Special to the Daily Press
BEST PICTURE
The nominees: “Brokeback Mountain”; “Capote”; “Good Night, and Good Luck”; “Munich”; “Crash.”
Should win: Four of the five nominees are worthy contenders — “Munich” didn’t deserve to get a BP nod over “Walk the Line” — but if I had to plunk down $9 to see any one of these non-blockbusters again, my money would be on “Capote.” I might leave halfway through, however, if “Crash” were playing in the theater next door.
Could win: “Brokeback Mountain” is the favorite and could benefit from a high-profile Oscar campaign. “Crash” seems to be the most likely spoiler, and “Capote” the caliginous stallion that could very well beat them both.
Will win: Despite all the public approbation for “Brokeback” in Hollywood circles, my guess is that many of the Academy’s 6,000 or so voters are still too squeamish about the subject matter to give their vote to Ang Lee’s man-love story. The safer, no less worthy “Crash” will be the winner Sunday night.

BEST ACTOR
The nominees: Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Capote”; Terrence Howard in “Hustle & Flow”; Heath Ledger in “Brokeback Mountain”; Joaquin Phoenix in “Walk the Line”; David Strathairn in “Good Night, and Good Luck.”
Should win: Truth is, all these guys deserve to win and each would be a favorite in a less competitive year. No doubt Heath Ledger laid it all on the line with his gutsy performance in “Brokeback Mountain” (I mean, who knows where Jake Gyllenhaal’s lips have BEEN!), but Hoffman gave a brilliant performance in “Capote.” Hoffman deserves the statue.
Could win: It’s Ledger or Hoffman.
Will win: In a toss-up, it goes to Hoffman.

BEST ACTRESS
The nominees: Judi Dench in “Mrs. Henderson Presents”; Felicity Huffman in “Transamerica”; Keira Knightley in “Pride & Prejudice”; Charlize Theron in “North Country”; Reese Witherspoon in “Walk the Line.”
Should win: Huffman and Witherspoon are more deserving than the others.
Could win: Huffman or Witherspoon. The other three already know they’re just along for the ride and the gift bags.
Will win: You’ve got to wonder if many voters even saw Huffman’s fantastic gender-bending turn in “Transamerica.” “Walk the Line” got snubbed for Best Picture; Witherspoon takes home a consolation prize in this category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The nominees: Amy Adams in “Junebug”; Catherine Keener in “Capote”; Frances McDormand in “North Country”; Rachel Weisz in “The Constant Gardener”; Michelle Williams in “Brokeback Mountain.”
Should win: All of them.
Could win: In the interest of full disclosure, I did not see “Junebug,” nor do I know much about actress Amy Adams. Yet I’m going to say Adams has a very good chance to win in this category, as it’s always good for a shocker.
Will win: Weisz narrowly edges Williams.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The nominees: George Clooney in “Syriana”; Matt Dillon in “Crash”; Paul Giamatti in “Cinderella Man”; Jake Gyllenhaal in “Brokeback Mountain”; William Hurt in “A History of Violence.”
Should win: Giamatti deserves an Oscar, alright, but not for this movie. Hurt barely logged 10 minutes of screen time and, yo!, his Philly tough-guy accent was iffy at best. Ledger, not Gyllenhaal, wears the pants in their relationship and everyone knows it. That leaves Dillon and Clooney, and either of them would look good holding the Oscar Sunday night.
Could win: Voters might give it to Giamatti to atone for the infamous “Sideways” shaft.
Will win: The multi-nominated Clooney is the man behind “Syriana” and “Good Night, and Good Luck,” and the Oscar will be his only reward for both efforts.

BEST DIRECTOR
The nominees: Ang Lee, “Brokeback Mountain”; Bennett Miller, “Capote”; Paul Haggis, “Crash”; George Clooney, “Good Night, and Good Luck”; Steven Spielberg, “Munich.”
Should win: Lee, Clooney or Haggis.
Could win: Most likely Lee, maybe Clooney or Haggis.
Will win: Lee, for this and his complete body of work.