> ## Content Index
> Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.smdp.com/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further.

# It isn’t March, but the madness will begin today
- URL: https://www.smdp.com/it-isnt-march-but-the-madness-will-begin-today/
- Published: 2004-01-19T16:00:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-23T03:35:44.000Z
- Author: Guest Author
- Tags: Education, Santa Monica, #archive-import

*Guest Commentary*

*By Lara M. Brown, Ph.D.*

The equivalent to March Madness begins today. And it doesn’t involve a basketball. It involves eight candidates, all running for the Democratic presidential nomination.

What makes it like March Madness — the exciting and turbulent month that every basketball fan hangs on to the edge of their sofa waiting for? ■ The tight schedule: Thirty states voting in just over 40 days, beginning today with the Iowa caucus and most likely wrapping up with the 10 states who vote on March 2\. In between, there are elections all through February, with three or four states voting nearly every week. ■ Eight candidates whose policies fall all along the progressive spectrum: Can anyone remember having so many options to choose from? ■ The candidates themselves: One favorite (Dean); one contender (Clark); one underdog (Edwards); three storied competitors with long track records (Kerry, Gephardt and Lieberman); and three wildcards (Dennis Kucinich, Al Sharpton and Moseley Braun). ■ The voters: Never before have so many different voters mattered in a primary season. And it isn’t just the difference between the electorates in Iowa and New Hampshire, but also the difference between those individuals voting in South Carolina and those voting in Arizona — both of whom go to the polls on Feb. 3\. ■ The opinion polls: The state polls are all tightening because at last the “undecideds” are beginning to make up their minds. In Iowa, two polls conducted between Jan. 5-7, show Dean leading Gephardt, Kerry and Edwards are all tied when one takes into account the margins of error. In New Hampshire, Dean is still the favorite, but Clark is moving up, and the race for third is too close to call between four of the other candidates (Kerry, Edwards, Lieberman and Gephardt). ■ Proportional representation: In 1968, Democrats banned winner-take-all rules for awarding pledged delegates to their convention. Further complicating the delegate count, nearly one-fifth of the delegates are unpledged (mostly elected officials and former party leaders), meaning that they are not bound by the results of their state and may endorse whomever they choose for the presidential nomination. To be awarded pledged delegates, a candidate must receive at least 15 percent of the vote in a state primary or caucus, but in a year like this, it is possible that as many as three or four candidates could earn that vote share, which would allow them to continue to make the case that they are still “in the running” for the nomination, and not drop out all that early. ■ The media: No one knows how much or how little coverage any one of the candidates or the states will get. Will the media cover all the states the same? Or will they cover the few states they deem “important” and ignore the rest, either because of time zone inconvenience, state size, or expectations? Will the results from Washington state get as much coverage as those from Michigan on Feb. 7? It’s doubtful. Will the media forgo state coverage altogether, in favor of just keeping track of the candidate’s delegate count? It’s anyone’s guess. ■ The sideshows: Lots of other distractions may end up making the entire nomination contest an also-ran in the ratings and in the minds of the public. The Kobe Bryant, the Michael Jackson, the Scott Peterson, the Robert Blake, and the Martha Stewart trials are all going on and from the television ratings they are garnering, the viewing public seems to be much more interested in what happens to these celebrities than to tuning into who wins the Democratic nomination. Additionally, President Bush is giving his State of the Union Address on Tuesday, so no one knows how much of the momentum will get slowed or stopped entirely by the president’s annual message to Congress.

Here’s the thing — according to the Associated Press, a candidate needs to capture at least 2,162 delegates out of the total 4,322 to win the nomination.

As of Jan. 10, only 277 (unpledged) delegates have been committed to candidates (all eight candidates have at least one delegate, Dean has the most with 88). Iowa accounts for only 45 pledged delegates and 11 unpledged delegates. New Hampshire, even fewer delegates are at stake: 22 pledged and five unpledged.

What this means is that the race is wide open and like March Madness, there are sure to be dark horses, Cinderella stories, and lay ups. And it’s always possible that Xavier University will end up playing Duke in the Final Four. (Lara Brown is a Los Angeles resident and considers herself a mildly moderate conservative Democrat. She has a Ph.D. in political science).

*Originally published in the Santa Monica Daily Press print edition on January 19, 2004.* [Read the original PDF.](https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/smdp%5Fbackissues/011904.pdf?ref=smdp.com)