The Los Angeles Sheriff's Department has issued an evacuation warning for the palisades burn scar area due to the significant threat of mud and debris flows expected this week. Residents in Pacific Palisades, Malibu, and surrounding areas are urged to prepare for possible evacuations as a rare and potent storm system approaches the region.
Those living near recent burn scars should gather loved ones, pets, important documents, medications, and other critical supplies now. The Sheriff's Department emphasizes that those who need more time to evacuate—including older adults, people with young children, families with pets or livestock, and those with access or functional needs—should consider leaving immediately rather than waiting for mandatory orders.
"Anyone in these areas should be ready to leave at a moment's notice," officials stated. Evacuation Warnings have been issued in areas near recent burn scars due to the heightened risk of debris flows. Residents can view areas under evacuation warning on the map at protect.genasys.com or visit Alertla.org for more information.
According to the National Weather Service, the evacuation alert comes as a rare October storm system approaches Los Angeles County with the potential to bring widespread rain, flooding, and debris flows. Rain is expected to begin tonight, Monday, October 13, and continue through Tuesday, October 14, with the potential for significant impacts in recent burn scar areas.
According to the weather forecast, tonight will bring a chance of rain and thunderstorms, with rain and possibly a thunderstorm expected after 11 p.m. Breezy conditions will persist, with south winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts as high as 30 mph. The low temperature will reach around 60 degrees, with a 100 percent chance of precipitation. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half inch are possible tonight.
Tuesday will see rain and possibly a thunderstorm throughout the day, with a high near 65 degrees. Southwest winds around 15 mph with gusts as high as 20 mph will continue. Again, there is a 100 percent chance of precipitation, with new rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch expected. Tuesday night will see a 20 percent chance of showers, with partly cloudy skies and a low around 53 degrees.
The storm poses multiple hazards beyond typical rainfall. A significant threat exists for severe thunderstorms capable of producing very localized but damaging winds and, in rare cases, tornadoes. Debris flows, road flooding, and isolated wind damage are all expected. The most serious threat comes in the form of deep and significant debris flows in burn scar areas, particularly the Palisades, Eaton, and southern Bridge burn scars.
Rainfall rates are expected to be substantial, with peak rainfall rates of 0.33 to 0.66 inches per hour common in many areas. More severe isolated rates around 1.00 inch per hour are also likely, though their exact locations remain uncertain. Rainfall totals will range from 0.75 to 1.50 inches commonly, with 2.00 to 4.00 inches expected in favorable south-facing slopes and foothills. An isolated reading of 5 inches is possible, particularly over the San Gabriels.
These rainfall rates will likely cause minor road issues, heavy traffic during the Tuesday morning commute, shallow debris flows near burn scars, and potential lane or offramp flooding. Rockslides in canyon roads are nearly certain.
Officials urge residents to avoid outdoor activities and stay indoors as much as possible, especially during thunder and lightning storms or when experiencing sudden wind shifts. Residents should avoid parking near tall trees and be prepared for potential power outages. If driving is necessary, extra time should be allowed due to slippery roads, low visibility, and localized flooding.
Those near burn scars face a particular risk of significant debris flows. Residents should heed local officials' advice and expect mud and debris on some roads at minimum. Boaters are advised to stay in safe harbor.
By Wednesday afternoon or evening, lingering showers should end, with drying and warming conditions following through the end of the week.