The official count of people experiencing homelessness in Los Angeles is undercounting the unsheltered population by as much as 32%, according to new research from the RAND Corporation that raises serious concerns about resource allocation in the nation's homelessness capital.
The growing discrepancy between the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority's annual Point-in-Time Count and RAND's more rigorous Los Angeles Longitudinal Enumeration and Demographic Survey could mean that up to 7,900 people and dwellings are missing from LA's most recent official homelessness count, researchers said in a report published Tuesday.
"The places with the highest needs are becoming the very places where the county's official count is most underestimated," wrote RAND researchers Louis Abramson, Jason M. Ward, Sarah B. Hunter and Rick Garvey.
The RAND study examined three key Los Angeles neighborhoods — Hollywood, Venice and Skid Row — comparing LAHSA's volunteer-led visual survey results with professional counters using internal consistency checks. While the two counts closely aligned in 2022 and 2023, with the PIT within 5% of LA LEADS estimates, a sharp divergence emerged in 2024 when the official count fell 26% short. That gap widened to 32% in 2025.
The undercount is most severe in areas with the highest concentrations of homelessness. In Skid Row, the 2025 PIT count captured just 61% of the unsheltered population identified by LA LEADS. Hollywood's official count reached 81% of the LA LEADS total, while Venice fell in between at 76%.
The discrepancy is particularly pronounced among rough sleepers — people living without the protection of a vehicle or tent — who researchers say have the highest social and clinical needs. As rough sleeping has increased in the three neighborhoods studied, the PIT's accuracy has deteriorated.
"Rough sleepers have the highest social and clinical needs and are therefore arguably the most important group to count accurately," the researchers wrote. "If under-identification trends continue, PIT inaccuracies may actively push resources away from high-need areas."
The undercount has significant implications for funding distribution. The PIT count enabled the distribution of $220 million in federal funds in 2024 and directed roughly $100 million in regional funds in 2025 through Measure A, a county sales tax. If neighborhood-level unevenness persists across different municipalities, some cities could receive 30% more Measure A Local Solutions Fund dollars per unsheltered person or dwelling than others, meaningfully skewing funding away from true needs.
"Without a correction, LAHSA's undercount could divert resources from the communities that need them most, eroding recent gains on a top policy priority," the researchers warned.
The RAND findings come as LAHSA finalized its 2025 homeless count results following a review by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development that found duplication and utilization errors requiring minor revisions.
The revised count shows 67,777 people experiencing homelessness in the Los Angeles Continuum of Care, down 141 from preliminary figures announced in July. For the City of Los Angeles, the total was revised downward by four people to 43,695. All revisions fall within the margins of error and are considered statistically insignificant.
The sheltered count in the LA CoC was revised from 23,503 to 23,362, a reduction of 141 people. For the city, the sheltered count was adjusted from 16,727 to 16,723.
Countywide, the unsheltered estimate was revised upward by 37 people to 47,450 after LAHSA discovered it had mistakenly used an outdated file that did not include data from the Winnetka area.
"LAHSA has an unwavering commitment to accountability and transparency, especially when it comes to providing as accurate a picture of homelessness in our community," said Bevin Kuhn, LAHSA's deputy chief analytics officer. "This standard HUD data review presents an opportunity to ensure our Homeless Count data is as accurate as possible."
The HUD review also led to revisions in several demographic subpopulations, including a 59-person decrease in the Black, African American or African sheltered population, a 55-person increase in the White sheltered population, and a 162-person increase in the chronic homelessness sheltered population.
LAHSA also announced the creation of a Local Jurisdiction Count, which the agency described as "a significant step in enhancing transparency." The new dataset uses contemporaneous administrative records to incorporate scattered-site shelter data and makes other verified adjustments. Los Angeles County will use this dataset to determine funding allocations for the Measure A Local Solutions Fund.
The RAND researchers suggested a straightforward solution: PIT organizers should rely more heavily on professional field teams to independently cross-check volunteer counts. They called the solution "relatively inexpensive," requiring little managerial overhead and potentially fundable through Measure A.
"There is a straightforward fix that policymakers could adopt," the researchers wrote. "The return on this investment in data quality and policy confidence would be substantial, to say nothing of the material gains from a better census."
The accuracy concerns emerge as the region faces mounting fiscal pressures. Los Angeles County is confronting a severe fiscal crisis, with the Board of Supervisors proposing to cut more than $300 million from homeless services in next year's budget — a reduction that would eliminate more than a third of the region's homelessness budget in a single year.
The proposed cuts compound sweeping funding reductions already in effect at the state and federal levels. While other county departments are scaling back park hours, beach cleanings and arts programs, homeless services face disproportionate reductions.
Dennis Oleesky, interim CEO of the Los Angeles Mission, said funding reductions ripple through the entire system. When access centers, transitional housing or subsidies are scaled back, fewer people can enter care and fewer can move into permanent housing.
"When there's nowhere else to go — many often end up on Skid Row," said Oleesky, who draws on his background in banking and financial management to preserve efficiency and accountability under tightening budgets.
Oleesky warned that without urgent action from county leaders, the system's capacity to move people from homelessness to housing will continue to erode, putting the region's most vulnerable residents at greater risk.