> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.smdp.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # RAND study: Santa Monica's economy lags peers, but crime and homelessness picture more mixed - URL: https://www.smdp.com/rand-study-santa-monicas-economy-lags-peers-but-crime-and-homelessness-picture-more-mixed/ - Published: 2026-10-01T16:02:11.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-01T16:02:11.000Z - Author: Matthew Hall - Tags: Government & Politics, #socials Editor's Note: The RAND report is detailed and SMDP will publish additional stories in the coming days with more specifics on each of the study areas and recommendations. A new study by RAND has put empircal data behind several longstanding assumptions about the City and while some are verifiably true, such as Santa Monica's economy declining more sharply than those of neighboring cities, others are more nuanced, such as assumptions about crime and homelessness finding support in specific parts of the city but not over the whole. The report found that concerns about tourism, retail sales and other business indicators are warranted, with Santa Monica performing worse than most peer cities. It also found that the city's new leadership has recently made substantial policy reforms that may improve its economic trajectory. Researchers analyzed data from Santa Monica and several comparison cities in the Los Angeles area and interviewed 14 people from the public and private sectors. Some of the city's negative trends may stem from macroeconomic conditions, changing commuting preferences and other factors beyond City Hall's control, interviewees said. The authors describe their findings as descriptive and note that their interview sample centers business and development perspectives. **Economy** Many parts of Santa Monica's economy declined more than in Beverly Hills, Culver City and West Hollywood over the last decade, the study found. From 2015 to 2025, clothing and accessories sales fell 75% and food services sales fell 24%. Sales began falling around the COVID-19 pandemic and, after an incomplete recovery, resumed a downward trend that continues, according to the report. Visitor counts were recently at only 58% of the pre-pandemic peak, and vacancies remain high on the Third Street Promenade and at Santa Monica Place. Some interviewees suggested the city may have a structural oversupply of commercial space. Hotel occupancy has held up well compared with peer cities, but hotel revenue is declining, and tourism employment fell more than in several comparison cities. Santa Monica drew 8.41 million visitors in 2019\. In 2025, it drew nearly 3.9 million. Day visitors made up 88% of 2025 visitors but generated only 27% of spending. Ground-floor occupancy on the Promenade was 75% on April 30, 2026\. Santa Monica Place went into receivership in early 2025, and its Nordstrom closed that August. Interviewees described a past "extractive mindset" at City Hall toward businesses, though they said that has changed meaningfully. They also cited ongoing obstacles. These include a recently adopted law requiring rehiring and labor peace agreements for lessees of city-owned commercial property, high regional parking and hotel taxes, and unexpected discretionary upgrade requests from the sanitation and public works departments. Those requests can come even when a new business does the same thing as the previous tenant. RAND recommended that the city expand its new business concierge service and give departments such as transportation and sanitation clear guidance to reduce idiosyncratic decisions in the field. It also urged the city to fill vacant space through pop-up shops, more festivals, redevelopment of disused properties and recruitment of employers in targeted sectors. Finally, it called for a comprehensive review of the right-to-rehire and labor peace law. In March 2026, the City Council approved an eight-point economic development package that includes a $3 million recruitment fund and eliminates a $1,000-per-seat wastewater fee for restaurants. **Homelessness** Citywide homeless counts have been relatively stable over the past decade and declined modestly in 2026, the study found. Homelessness is heavily concentrated downtown and along the beachfront, however, where businesses and visitors see it most. Of the comparison areas studied, only Venice had similar levels. The 2026 count found 718 people experiencing homelessness in Santa Monica, down 11.6% from 812 in 2025\. Over the same period, homelessness rose 3.4% in the city of Los Angeles and 1.2% countywide. Business owners told researchers that unsheltered people with significant mental health problems or untreated substance use disorders make it harder to attract and keep customers. The city is relocating key homelessness services out of downtown, which the report said may help reduce that concentration. On Aug. 4, the council voted to close the SaMoShel shelter and build a city-controlled "Housing Focused System of Care." RAND recommended more frequent and detailed homeless counts, including public performance indicators. It also recommended proactive outreach to high-risk populations downtown and a possible restart of the Homeless Community Court program for the small number of people who use an outsized share of public services and criminal justice resources. **Crime** Aggravated assaults and robberies have roughly doubled since the early 2010s, peaked in 2018 and remain elevated, the study found. The increases were overwhelmingly downtown. Half of aggravated assaults and 71% of robberies occur in the 5% of the city with the most crime, mostly downtown. Venice saw similar increases over the same time. Most other property and violent crimes have been stable for two decades, the report said, though car thefts spiked citywide during the pandemic. The opioid epidemic likely shaped perceptions of disorder. Drug overdose deaths in the county have more than doubled since 2016. Interviewees pointed to several policing changes: full staffing for the first time in 20 years, a downtown substation, more foot and bike patrols, and closer coordination with city attorneys on prosecutions. Recent Police department figures show progress. Part I crime fell 12.5% in 2025 to 4,194 incidents, the lowest in at least a decade. Robberies fell 24% to 142, and aggravated assaults fell 13% to 329\. Perceptions have lagged behind the numbers. In a September poll paid for by the police and firefighter unions, 71% of likely voters said the Promenade area is not safe after dark. The report said the long term effect of those changes on public safety remains unclear. **Housing** From 2018 to 2025, Santa Monica built less housing per resident than any comparison city except Beverly Hills, the study found. Projects take more than six years on average to reach occupancy, with most of that time spent before a building permit is issued. Production is poised to rise temporarily because of the state's "builder's remedy" policy that allowed thousands of units to be approved in 2022 while the city's zoning rules were effectively suspended. Interviewees called the entitlement process dramatically improved. One land-use attorney said they would "rather propose a housing project in Santa Monica than literally any other jurisdiction in the entire state." The reforms have not yet produced more construction, however. The city's state target is 8,895 units by 2029\. It permitted 37 units in 2024. Interviewees cited inconsistent inspector discretion, late-stage demands from city departments and a cumbersome two-step architectural review as barriers the city can address. Coastal Commission review of development in much of the city's densest area is beyond local control. RAND made several housing recommendations: - Finish the city's Local Coastal Program on a public timetable. - Expand incentives for converting commercial buildings to housing. - Reconsider the two-stage design review and reduce the number of required reviewers. - Coordinate departments earlier in plan review. - Build an open data portal tracking development timelines. - Reach out to builders and investors about recent reforms. - Add inspection resources, including more experienced inspectors and greater use of deputy inspectors.