Santa Monica could face nearly $1.5 billion in combined losses from natural disasters over the next several decades, according to a comprehensive hazard mitigation plan presented to city officials this week.
The 2025 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Update, delivered to the Planning Commission last week, identifies sea level rise as the costliest long-term threat, with potential losses reaching $847 million by 2100. Wildfire damage could range from $60 million to $660 million, reflecting new risk assessments following January's devastating Palisades fire.
"The January 2025 Palisades fire presented a new reality where fire acted as a structure-to-structure event, not just a wildland-urban interface fire," said Lindsay Call, the city's Chief Resilience Officer, who presented the findings. The fire forced officials to rewrite two hazard chapters and revise mitigation strategies.
The plan identifies earthquake, tsunami, wildfire and catastrophic flooding as the city's greatest risks. New state fire maps now place Santa Monica in very high, high and moderate hazard zones, a significant change from previous assessments.
Earthquake Poses Greatest Immediate Threat
Analysis of four earthquake scenarios shows the Santa Monica fault presents the most severe risk due to its proximity to the city. The fault line scenario produces the largest damage estimates because of tremendous shaking potential and high likelihood of liquefaction and landslides.
Tsunami risks vary dramatically based on origin. A long-distance tsunami from Alaska with a 20-foot runup would impact areas north of the pier up to Pacific Coast Highway and south of the pier, affecting parks and parking lots but not overtopping the coastal bluffs. Local tsunamis pose greater casualty risks due to a 10-minute evacuation window.
The most catastrophic flooding scenario involves failure of Stone Canyon Dam, which would send water stretching to the marina and Mar Vista with maximum depths potentially reaching 12 feet. Officials estimate evacuation time at approximately 1.5 hours.
Five-Year Action Plan Unveiled
City officials outlined ambitious mitigation projects for the next five years, though funding and staffing constraints were cited as primary challenges across nearly every proposed action.
Key initiatives include developing a citywide evacuation plan that accounts for residents without transportation and those with disabilities. The city plans to evaluate multimodal evacuation routes and implement Red Flag Warning restrictions to limit fire ignition risk.
Infrastructure improvements will focus on retrofitting water systems where they cross the Santa Monica fault line. Officials also plan to install backup utilities, solar power and microgrids at essential emergency facilities.
The tsunami alert system will be expanded along the coastline with robust communication methods targeting tourists, who represent a significant but uncounted population in current risk assessments.
Natural systems improvements include continuing beach dune restoration for tsunami and climate change resilience, plus expanding community gardens to improve food security during disasters.
Vulnerable Communities Face Higher Risks
Planning commissioners noted that hazard maps show higher risks concentrated in lower-resource areas with vulnerable residents, including elderly and disabled populations. The northeastern section of the city, which has an older population and more residents with disabilities, presents specific evacuation challenges during wildfires.
"We look a lot at high resource communities, but there are lower resource areas with people who are more vulnerable, and all of those maps were targeting those areas," said Commissioner Nina Fresco during the presentation.
The emergency management office acknowledged they layer social vulnerability analysis onto hazard maps and plan to focus education and outreach in those specific areas.
Document Accessibility Prioritized
The comprehensive plan spans three volumes and will be converted into a magazine-style format available in six languages with a dedicated website to improve public accessibility. Officials cited a successful education program at Grant Elementary School, where students create disaster preparedness displays, as a model for non-threatening community education.
The plan requires approval from the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services and FEMA before becoming an appendix to the city's Safety Element. The update is mandated every five years, with the previous version completed in 2016.
The Planning Commission will review the plan before it advances to the City Council for final consideration.