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Auto show forecasts future of oil industry

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I WENT TO THE L.A. AUTO SHOW THIS past weekend. I love the auto show, there’s so much to see, and it provides a great window into the soul of the American consumer. From the time of the very first “horseless carriages” to today, the auto has been a type of ‘canary in the coal mine’ of what the consuming public has wanted.

It is wonderful that in the space of two hours, walking around the Los Angeles Convention Center, I can see all types of people, from the drooling, pimply faced teenagers who are slobbering over the Ferraris and Spykers,to the dads carrying their children, being forced to consider the benefits of the mini-van versus the SUV. As we walked around, looking at all the new Mazdas, Kias, and Volvos, from the uber high-end Maybachs to the utilitarian Suzukis, there were two thoughts that kept running around my brain — most of these cars are not ‘sub-compact’or even ‘compact’,and most of these people will never be able to afford the high-end luxury vehicles that are such a draw for the masses.

Throughout the show this year there was a decidedly different feel. In place of the many stunning women in less-than-demure clothing, were more men doing the pitches of the various new upgrades and special features of this year’s models. There were beautiful women, but for the most part, they were wearing the black pantsuit that says,“I’m pretty, but I’m not here to overpower the beauty of the car.” This is different than in years past,when the Teri Hatcher-type models would pitch a car’s benefits in a slinky ballgown with lots of rhinestones.

No, this year, the auto show went with reserved pitch people and the topic of the day was the environment. From the tires to the fuel systems, it was all about being green. Having a smaller eco-footprint, some companies, like Toyota were hawking their credentials on reducing carbon dioxide production in the manufacturing process, others, like Honda, were touting the benefits of their hydrogen fuel cell cars.

Everywhere was the image of grass and rolling green hills and clean air. The one thing that was missing though, for me at least, was smaller cars. OK, they were there, just in the “concept car” divisions of each of the major manufacturers. This year, though, the Tahoe is back, bigger than ever; same goes for the Toyota Tundra, the Hummers and Ridgelines. The Lexus LS400 series is longer and more powerful; the Lincoln Navigators are just as big and powerful as a Lincoln is supposed to be.

There were a few concept cars that were basically rip-offs of the Mini Cooper, but even the Mini is now coming in a larger version!

The other thing to note is just how many manufacturers there are. The quantity of car manufacturers is a major obstacle to getting reforms in the manufacturing and performance of cars.

Precisely because there are so many different companies, who employ so many millions of people, is why reforms are so difficult to push through quickly.There is too much at stake from an economic standpoint, globally, to move fast. These millions of employees all have families, and they mostly want to one day buy the type of product they are producing.

It is that middle class lust, that wanting to keep up with the Joneses that is at the root of the environmental problems associated with cars. In the ’70s, when gas prices spiked, compact and sub-compacts were in production quickly, not so today. Americans, and soon the rest of the world, want their cars to be large, to accommodate their large appetites and increasing girth.

The lesson of this year’s Auto Show is not that the car companies are going green, though they would have us believe that, but rather, that they are not going away. The gasoline-powered engine is here for easily the next 20 years,and in rapidly increasing numbers and size. It is estimated that there are 800 million cars on the road, globally, that number is expected to quadruple to 3.2 billion over the course of the next 30 years, thanks to India, China and the developing world.

That’s a lot of gasoline. That’s a lot of plastic parts that go into those cars, and plastic comes from oil.Then there’s the copper for the wiring, steel for the body and chassis, and rubber for the tires.

With all the manufacturers,and all the people who want to own a car, there’s no doubt that the oil industry isn’t going anywhere, but on to increased profits.Big,big profits for years to come.

DAVID PISARRA is a family law attorney in the Santa Monica firm of Pisarra & Grist. He can be reached at dpisarra@pisarra.com or (310) 664- 9969.

Originally published in the Santa Monica Daily Press print edition on November 27, 2007. Read the original PDF.

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