Back-to-school shopping is back in full swing as students and parents prepare for the upcoming school year. But the 2026 season is increasingly defined by disciplined spending, even as some forecasts point to record-breaking totals.
The National Retail Federation expects the market to reach an all-time high of $43.3 billion. Still, parents are taking a more cautious approach as inflation — which rose 4.2 percent in May — shapes their decisions.
That economic pressure has fueled growing pessimism among buyers. According to the 2026 Deloitte Back-to-School Survey, 57 percent of buyers believe the economy will continue to worsen.
The Deloitte survey found spending per child at $557, largely stagnant compared with previous years. The National Retail Federation, by contrast, found spending at $863.86 per family, reflecting an increase in dollar terms.
Deloitte projected the K-12 market to reach $30.4 billion, a 6 percent decline, compared with the National Retail Federation's $43.3 billion projection. The two organizations attribute the gap to differences in survey size and timing: Deloitte surveyed a smaller pool in May, while the National Retail Federation surveyed a larger pool in June, capturing spending activity from major sales events such as Prime Day.
Parents' priorities are clear in how they're allocating their budgets. Within K-12 households, apparel spending is up 22 percent as families replace worn items, while spending on technology upgrades is being deferred, with an expected 16 percent decrease. The National Retail Federation, however, predicts electronics spending will rise among both K-12 and college students, noting more college shoppers plan to spend in that category.
Rather than spending all at once, 23 percent of consumers plan to spread their purchases over time, and 47 percent plan to buy only essentials and replenish supplies throughout the year, according to the National Retail Federation.
Much of this year's spending is being driven by what Deloitte calls "hyper-value seekers" — shoppers who rely on four or more cost-saving methods. Deloitte found 31 percent of shoppers fall into that category, and 54 percent said they used major June sales events, such as Prime Day and Target Circle Deal Days, specifically for school-related purchases.
Despite their focus on cutting costs, hyper-value seekers actually spend more: $610 per child on average, 14 percent above the overall figure.
Parents who use social media also tend to spend more, according to Deloitte, which found that shoppers using search engines, social media and generative AI spend $737 per child, compared with $381 for those who don't use those tools. Even so, the intent to buy online hasn't fully translated into purchases: Only 50 percent of K-12 shoppers and 41 percent of college shoppers who research online actually complete purchases there.
Retailers are adjusting to these cost-conscious trends by rolling out early promotions and value offerings to win over shoppers. Walmart, for example, has marked down select back-to-school items to 25 cents and cut prices on 14 of its most popular products, while Kohl's has listed thousands of items below $25. Beyond price cuts, retailers are also courting hyper-value seekers with wider product assortments and more convenient shopping options.
In California, families are navigating a mix of regional inflation and state support this school year. Fuel prices have jumped 23.6 percent and shelter costs 2.8 percent, but the 2026-27 fiscal budget signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom aims to ease some of that pressure through universal school meals, tax relief and expanded student support.
Those efforts may help soften the blow, but for now, economic uncertainty continues to shape how parents spend — and that's expected to hold true through the rest of the school year.
Sophia Friedman, Special to the Daily Press