Aggravated assaults and robberies in Santa Monica roughly doubled over the past decade, but the increase was overwhelmingly a downtown problem, and most other crimes have held steady across the rest of the city for two decades, according to a new RAND Corporation study.
The report, "Santa Monica's Recent Economic and Social Trends: A Case Study with Regional Comparisons," examined 20 years of Santa Monica Police Department records for eight offenses. It found that aggravated assault rose more than 100% starting in 2013, peaked in 2018 and has stayed high. Robbery also roughly doubled from 2013 to a 2018 peak, though it remains less common than 20 years ago. Report authors said the timing showed the increases "were not simply a result of the pandemic."
Grand theft auto spiked around 2020, consistent with national trends, and that increase occurred citywide. But when RAND broke the data down by ZIP code, it found the rise in assaults and robberies was almost entirely driven by downtown. Elsewhere in the city, violent and property crime are as low as they have been in two decades. "Declines in public safety in Santa Monica are primarily a downtown phenomenon," the authors concluded.
Crime is also tightly concentrated. RAND covered the city with a grid of 1,144 hexagons, each 500 feet across, and found that the 5% with the most aggravated assaults accounted for 50.6% of those crimes from 2023 to 2025. The hotspots cover a highly condensed area between Broadway and Colorado from 5th to Ocean.
Robbery was even more concentrated, with 71% occurring in 5% of the city. Burglary, car theft and vandalism were more spread out, with burglary hot spots in western Wilshire-Montana and vandalism in Ocean Park.
Santa Monica's trends are not exceptional, the report found. Compared with Venice and West Hollywood from 2010 to 2023, Venice had an even larger proportional increase in aggravated assault, while West Hollywood had none. Burglary and car theft rose earlier and more sharply in Santa Monica. Because neighboring Venice most closely mirrors Santa Monica, the authors said municipal policing or governance differences may not play a large role.
The authors cautioned that crime data miss disorder that is not criminal but may feel threatening, and that fewer people downtown could mean higher risk for those who remain even if crime levels hold steady. They could not obtain reliable foot-traffic data to measure overall activity downtown.
The report said concerns over drug use could be connected to drug overdose deaths in Los Angeles County roughly doubling, from 1,123 in 2016 to 2,298 in 2025, which likely shaped perceptions, though several crime increases predated fentanyl's arrival.
Interviewees described sweeping police changes in recent times: a new chief with strong rank-and-file support, full staffing for the first time in 20 years, a substation at Santa Monica Place, more foot and bike patrols, a real-time crime center, license plate readers and closer work with city attorneys to increase prosecutions. The effects "remain unclear," RAND said, noting that many changes are recent and that crime shifted across much of the country.
Researchers Jason M. Ward, Roland Neil and Lizhong Liu analyzed SMPD records from 2006 through 2025, along with Los Angeles Police Department data for Venice and Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department data for West Hollywood, and mapped where crimes occurred. SMPD switched record systems in 2024, and the authors adjusted the newer data to match earlier years. They also interviewed 14 people from government, business and development. The study used no statistical models, cannot establish causation and did not include police department representatives among interviewees.
SMPD's figures have shown serious crime falling in their most recent report. Part I crimes dropped 12.5% in 2025, from 4,793 incidents to 4,194, the lowest in at least a decade, according to the department's annual report. Robberies fell 24% to 142, burglaries 20% to 593, larceny 9% to 2,654 and aggravated assaults 13% to 329. Homicides fell from six to four. Part I crime had risen from 4,303 in 2021 to 4,884 in 2023. Nationally, the FBI reported violent crime fell 9.3% in 2025.
However, perception lags the numbers. In a Sept. 5-9 poll of 250 likely voters commissioned by the city’s public safety unions, 71% said the Promenade area is not safe after dark, and 43% said they feel less safe than two years ago. EMC Research conducted the poll for the Santa Monica Police Officers Association and Santa Monica Firefighters Local 1109, both of which are endorsing City Council candidates in the Nov. 3 election.
RAND recommended that the city focus on downtown, where crime and homelessness are concentrated, by proactively engaging high-risk populations there, which it called a likely resource-efficient approach. The authors said maintaining a visible presence at the highest-risk hot spots, through patrols or technology and especially at high-risk times, is important, along with programs that connect high-risk people to services. Arrests and prosecutions can be useful, they wrote, but prevention efforts "have the added benefit of not waiting until offending has occurred to act."
Because not all downtown crime is committed by homeless people, the authors said the city should also pursue more general crime-reduction measures. They urged the city to consider restarting its Homeless Community Court for high-need repeat offenders and to adopt more frequent, public measurement of homelessness to track results.