By Richard Parr Guest Commentary RECYCLE NOW!
While it is difficult to imagine today, older Iraqis can recall a peaceful multi-ethnic Baghdad, once a jewel of the Middle East, in which Muslims, Christians, Kurds and Jews lived in harmony. Harvard professor John G. Stoessinger has said that for some 400 years, the three Ottoman districts of Mosul, Baghdad and Basra, the area now known as Iraq, had coexisted in peace.
The upending of this peaceful coexistence can be traced to British meddling in the area after WWI. Great Britain, still a colonial power, cobbled the three administrative regions together, giving birth to the modern-day nation of Iraq. Eager to exploit the new nation’s vast oil reserves, the Brits installed a Sunni-led monarchy, though Shiites, Kurds and other groups rebelled against de facto Anglo rule. For almost a century the nation was held together by force.
For close to 40 years Saddam Hussein wielded the force and terror that held Iraq together. Today, post-Saddam Iraq is splitting apart into warring factions. So far, U.S.- backed elections and an almost half-trillion-dollar military effort have only wreaked havoc.
So why not encourage the re-division of the country into autonomous regions resembling the Ottoman districts that many scholars say had existed peacefully side by side for centuries? Such an approach would address the key source of much of today’s carnage — the battle for oil. The war over who will control the purse strings to Iraqi oil wealth will be lessened when Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds see that the nation’s oil wealth will be divided equitably.
Most of the fighting in Iraq is a turf war over oil revenue, military power and political control. Under Saddam, the minority Sunnis held power. Post-Saddam, they’ve lost that power and, not surprisingly, most of the insurrectionists are Sunnis. If the U.S. is committed to helping create greater stability in Iraq then we must help develop the significant untapped oil reserves in western Iraq, which is majority Sunni. In al-Anbar province alone,an estimated million barrels or more of untapped oil per day is the key to supporting an autonomous Sunni Arab region and quieting Sunni anxiety and rebellion. Self rule and a fair share of the nation’s oil wealth might well be the enticement for the majority of Sunnis to give up their claim to control all of Iraq.
But it is also of key importance for the U.S. to ensure that the majority of Iraq’s oil wealth remains in Iraq. At present, there is the widespread view that the eventual big winners in Iraq will be Exxon-Mobile, Chevron-Texaco, British BP-Amoco and Royal Dutch-Shell. The Bush administration’s policies have only heightened this fear. Indeed, our administration has endorsed a draft oil law for Iraq that favors foreign oil cartels. This plays into the hands of insurrectionists who assert that the U.S. invaded Iraq to secure that nation’s resources for Big Oil.
U.S.-backed national elections have failed to achieve any real gains. Instead of bringing unity to Iraq, the Shiite majority government in Baghdad has been unable to quell the growing chaos and its policies have served to ignite greater Sunni enmity.
Future elections will only yield similar results. Shiites and Kurds may win enough votes to control the national parliament but that will remain meaningless if they’re unable to rule the country. This is why the best option left is a Bosnia-like “Federation of Iraq.” Autonomy will give Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds a strong incentive to succeed on their own terms. Indeed, the Kurds have long shown a desire to re-divide Iraq and have created a unity government in the north where they have begun to independently export oil. Their example may speak to many Sunnis who also desire greater economic stability and self rule.
Re-dividing Iraq isn’t a panacea. Some predict that re-dividing Iraq will lead to civil war, as if tens of thousands of Iraqis have not already been killed in sectarian violence since the invasion. A three-region solution will require U.S.,United Nations and regional support, and a U.S. position warning neighboring states about the consequences of invasion.
A growing and diverse group of Democratic and Republican Senators from Joe Biden to Sam Brownback, from Barbara Boxer to Kay Bailey Hutchison support a three-region solution. The approach has many supporters in Iraq as well. As Kosrat Ali, Kurdistan’s Vice President put it,“No one here accepts to be ruled ever again by the other.”
Originally published in the Santa Monica Daily Press print edition on October 22, 2007. Read the original PDF.