National elections dictate outcomes
By ALEXANDRA BISSONNETTE Special to the Daily Press
DOWNTOWN The democratic process is cut and dry when it comes to the propositions. On Nov. 4, citizens will vote, and the majority will rule. It seems simple, right?
Wrong. National politics — in this case the presidential election — will come into play, greatly impacting the outcome of each proposition, political pundits said. The only question is how.
“It’s going to be a real smorgasbord on the ballot,” said Allan Hoffenblum a veteran Republican political strategist. “It’s going to be interesting.”
That smorgasbord includes propositions regarding gay marriage, animal rights, a high-speed passenger train, abortion rights, renewable energy, and a host of other issues with real implications for California residents.
Hoffenblum’s theory is that if presumptive Democratic nominee U.S. Sen. Barack Obama is shown to have a substantial lead in California at the time of the elections, many young people may not turn out to vote based on the assumption that their candidate is a shoe-in for the state’s 55 electoral votes. This could mean a lower voter turn-out overall.
Dan Schnur, Republican strategist and former communications director for Sen.
John McCain’s presidential campaign in 2000, also believes that the presidential race may impact the outcome of the propositions.
“There has been an ongoing argument about whether ballot initiatives drive voters to the polls,” said Schnur, who is the director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics. “But it seems more likely that a presidential election will affect the outcome of these initiatives.”
Contrary to Hoffenblum, Schnur believes that the front runner drives turn-out.
“If you think your candidate is going to lose, you don’t care as much,” he said.
According to this theory, it is likely that Obama supporters will turn out in greater numbers in California — a historically liberal state — in order to be a part of his victory.
No one will really know how the presidential race will affect individual initiatives until election day, when all the votes are counted — but that won’t stop people from guessing.
Proposition 8, which advocates a ban on gay marriage — possibly the most contentious issue on the ballot this fall — could be drastically affected by voter turnout in November.
“Prop. 8 is an excellent example of how an imbalanced electorate could change the outcome for an initiative,” Schnur said, adding that it is likely to be a close vote. “If current polls are accurate, you can assume that Obama supporters will turn out in greater numbers than McCain supporters …. That could have a huge impact on Prop. 8.”
Hal Dash, president of Cerrell Associates, a political consulting firm, believes that Prop. 8 will likely be overturned if Obama maintains his lead in California, what Dash calls a “true blue state.”
“Californians should turn out enthusiastically for Obama, and I think that will be very beneficial for Prop. 8 in terms of defeating it,” Dash said.
That is just one example of how the presidential election could sway the outcome of California’s 12 propositions.
Proposition 1 could also be impacted by the upcoming election.
If passed, Prop. 1 would authorize California to sell $9.95 billion in general obligation bonds to fund the construction of a high-speed passenger train. Schnur believes the outcome of the initiative could be influenced because “Democrats are generally more willing to spend government money.”
Dash disagrees. Despite the fact that Democrats are known to be more liberal in terms of funding, Dash thinks that the economy will have much more clout with voters at the polls than party affiliation.
“Eighty percent of Californian’s think the state is going in the wrong direction,” Dash said, citing a recent field poll. “People are squeezed economically, California has been hardest hit by the mortgage crisis, the market is very uneven and people are nervous.”
The economic mood of the state has led Dash to conclude that propositions increasing taxes or spending will “probably be defeated.”
“I can vote yes on Obama and no on taxes very easily.” Dash said. “People will be very cautious about anything involving money.”
Despite all of the uncertainty, Hoffenblum thinks that one thing is for sure.
“With such a smorgasbord on the ballot, there must be something to motivate you to go out there and vote.”
Originally published in the Santa Monica Daily Press print edition on August 19, 2008. Read the original PDF.