Results show Julia Brownley leading the race
CITYWIDE — In the hotly-contested race to succeed Fran Pavley as the next representative for the 41st Assembly District, local school board member Julia Brownley was leading the race with 4,614 votes, or 34.5 percent, more than three hours after polls closed Tuesday, according to county elections results.
With 34.4 percent of the precincts reporting, Calabasas City Councilman Barry Groveman was in a close second with 3,650 votes, or 27.3 percent, followed by Santa Monica attorney Jonathan Levey with 2,658 votes, or 19.8 percent. Kelly Hayes-Raitt was in fourth with 2,032 votes, or 15.1 percent. The candidate who receives the most votes becomes the Democratic candidate for the seat and will face off against Tony Dolz, the Republican front-runner with 5,152 votes, or 76.4 percent. His opponent, Adriana Van Hemert, had 1,597 votes, or 23.6 percent. That was with 115 of 334 precincts reporting as of 11:28 p.m. Libertarian Conrad Stefan Frankowski received 60 votes and ran unopposed.
Political pundits agree that whomever takes the Democratic nomination is almost certain to be elected come November, much of which has to do with the large number of liberals living in the district, which stretches from Santa Monica in the south,to Oxnard in the north,and includes the communities of Agoura Hills, Calabasas, Encino, Woodland Hills, Oak Park, Topanga, Pacific Palisades, Malibu, Hidden Hills, Westlake Village, Port Hueneme and Tarzana.
At Bogie’s Bar at the Westlake Village Inn, Groveman, along with Santa Monica Mayor Bob Holbrook, were waiting anxiously for more results to determine whether he would remain the leader of the pack among the eight candidates who ran. City Councilman Bobby Shriver was expected to arrive to show his support for Groveman but had not yet arrived.
“It’s hard to tell... I’m happy I’m ahead but it’s not enough to get excited,” Groveman said at about 10:45 p.m. when about 56 precincts, or about 16 percent of the votes had been tallied.“What’s surprising to me is that in the year 2006 it takes this long to get information.
“I’m optimistic but I’m cautious.” Groveman added that the key to the results will be what voters in Santa Monica have decided.
“It’s close but we don’t know where (the votes are) coming from right now,” he said.
At Brownley’s post-election headquarters, Back On Broadway restaurant, a lively scene was unfolding with a virtual whose who of local politicos, including Pavley, City Councilman Kevin McKeown, local school officials and former Santa Monica mayors.
“Julia had a good clear message, she was consistent,” said McKeown, a long-time supporter of Brownley.“She has a long-standing record here in the community.”
Brownley, who was neck and neck with Groveman at presstime, felt confident in her campaign and the election outcome. She pointed out that she was holding her own even though Groveman outspent her and used flashy campaign mailers. She countered his campaign with a lot of foot work by herself and by her volunteers, who spent thousands of combined hours in communities outside of Santa Monica and Malibu, where is she known by many people because she has been on the school board for 10 years.
“I’m cautiously optimistic,” Brownley said of the early election results.
At candidate Kelly Hayes-Raitt’s postelection gathering, dozens of supporters watched the polls with anticipation Tuesday night at the Club Twenty/Twenty on Wilshire Boulevard. Early in the evening, before the precincts started reporting, supporters milled around drinking beer and wine waiting for who they hoped would be the next assembly woman, which has been held by Pavley since 2000.
Homa Tabiza, a middle school teacher in Los Angeles, met Hayes-Raitt a few weeks ago when she was stumping. Tabiza volunteered, writing hand-written letters to her neighbors, urging them to vote for Hayes-Raitt.
“I just felt that she was very sincere and genuine and usually when you talk to politicians you don’t feel that way about them,” Tabiza said. “I feel good about supporting Kelly even though she (might not) win. I was introduced to a nice human being.”
Hayes-Raitt attempted to set her campaign apart by organizing a grassroots effort, such as delivering personal letters to voters partly to counteract the expensive glossy mailers her opponents peppered in mailboxes.
“We have run an extraordinary field campaign,” Hayes-Raitt told supporters who gathered at the dimly-lit nightclub. “The effort has been put in, now it’s just up to the wait game and let’s see what happens.”
Hayes-Raitt, a longtime Santa Monica resident who lives in the Ocean Park neighborhood, said she decided to run because she felt people have lost faith in the political process and she thought she could restore some of that trust.
“I feel lucky,” she said. “I can’t believe all these people,people whom I do not know,have come out to support me in my campaign.”
LAST MINUTE POLITICKING With voter turnout expected to hit record lows, candidates for the 41st Assembly District spent election day aggressively campaigning until the polls closed. Some, like Levey spent the majority of the day driving to different polling places to connect with voters. Others, like Brownley used the time to hit the phone banks and motivate voters to run to the polls and cast their ballots.
Hayes-Raitt said her day began at 7:30 a.m. outside a polling place in Oak Park, where she met with voters and passed out the last of her campaign literature. She did the same in Malibu and Santa Monica, and spent the afternoon calling voters encouraging them to vote.
“Over the last few days, we’ve contacted 11,000 folks to get out the vote,”Hayes-Raitt, a community organizer, said Tuesday afternoon. “We’re just trying to reach as many people as we can, and we’ll be doing it all the way up until the polls close.”
Brownley said she spent her day calling residents to remind them to vote and thanked those who had supported her. She said she voted in the morning with her son Fred, a Santa Monica High School senior, who participated in his first election. Brownley, a school board member for the Santa Monica-Malibu Unified School District, said later in the day she was going to watch her son receive an award during a ceremony at Samohi’s Barnum Hall and then would be going to her post-election party at Back on Broadway. She said she also would be stopping by the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor headquarters near downtown Los Angeles to thank union members for campaigning on her behalf.
“I really couldn’t have done this without our whole host of volunteers, who really went from every corner of the district walking precincts and talking with voters,” Brownley said.
ATTENTION DEFICIT There are several factors that have contributed to the low voter turnout, the most significant being the nature of the election. Being a primary, the election will naturally draw less interest than a general election, in which political parties are pitted against one another for control of the state. With no one challenging Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in the Republican primary,many party members might have sat this election out, particularly those in districts such as the 41st Assembly, which is one of the most liberal in the state and therefore may discourage conservatives from participating, political analysts said.
Of the more than 3.8 million registered voters in the county, just over 50 percent are registered Democrats; Republicans represent 26.9 percent with 18.5 percent registered Non-Partisan, according to figures released in April by the LA County Registrar- Recorder.
“Republicans really have no say in Santa Monica so there’s nothing really for them to vote for, except the propositions,” said Bob Stern, president of the Center for Governmental Studies. “I was at the polls in Malibu (Tuesday) morning at about a quarter until 8 (a.m.) and it wasn’t busy at all. That’s pathetic.”
At St. Paul’s Lutheran Church in Santa Monica, the picture was similar. Cindy McQuade, a poll worker there, said the polling precinct was relatively empty all day. The most people at one time was when the polls opened, when fewer than a dozen people lined up waiting to vote.
“It’s been quiet all day,” McQuade said. Dolz said it was a challenge for him to campaign in a mostly democratic district. Dolz said he was excluded from public forums that focused solely on left-leaning candidates and said the media all but ignored his campaign and that of his rival, Adriana Van Hemert.
“I know this district has been traditionally democratic, but the issues that I am campaigning on cut across the political spectrum,”said Dolz, who has focused heavily on stopping illegal immigration and securing the borders to protect against terrorism.“If I can just reach people, this could be a very interesting race come November.”
LASTING IMPRESSIONS The tone of the 41st District Assembly race has been positive, with candidates for the most part refraining from personal attacks, instead focusing on their records and the issues voters are concerned about, such as traffic congestion, protecting the environment and improving education. With very few discernible differences between the candidates, observers said it served them more to focus on who they are and what makes them unique instead of bashing their competitors.
That is in stark contrast to other campaigns, including the race for governor and attorney general, where negative campaigning has taken hold in the last few weeks, political observers said.
“I’ve been in this business for 28 years and I may sound like a senior citizen … but I just never would have thought there would be this type of campaigning,” said Joe Cerrell, a seasoned political consultant who has worked on the presidential campaigns of John F.Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson, among others.“Some of the stuff out there is below the belt.”
Negative ads, unfortunately may be the only way candidates can reach some voters, Stern said. However, the more negative a campaign gets, the less likely people will be to cast their vote, political observers said.
“I think voters are turned off by the way the candidates for governor have run their campaigns, but voters rarely believe the positive ads,” Stern said. “People tend to believe negative ads, which poses a problem when talking about voter turnout.”
TACTICS Most 41st District Assembly candidates said the possibility of a low voter turnout didn’t affect their campaign strategies. With a tight race and so many qualified candidates, the best strategy is to go all out and hold nothing back, candidates said.
“We just put an emphasis on our grass-roots campaign, much like you would do in any campaign,” said Levey, an attorney and college professor whose campaign received a significant boost with endorsements from the Los Angeles Times and the LA Weekly. “We know the key is to get as many of your supporters to the polls and I’m very confident that we did that. We knew the biggest challenge for me was introducing myself to the district and I think we accomplished that.”
Groveman, a former attorney who represented Santa Monica over water contamination, said low voter turnout may have worked in his favor since he spent a lot of time developing his grassroots campaign, going door to door and attending community forums.
“I’ve really tried to focus my efforts on all parts of the district, and in particular, Santa Monica,” said Groveman, who won the endorsements of Holbrook and Shriver. “I want to do well in Santa Monica, not just in the valley.”
EXPENDITURES To ensure a greater turnout in his favor, Groveman outspent his competitors with $547,657, according to campaign finance statements from May 20. Levey came in second with $314,098 in expenditures, followed by Brownley with $196,992 and Hayes-Raitt with $175,337.
“That’s a lot of money for an Assembly race,” said Richard Tahvildaran-Jesswein, a professor of political science at Santa Monica College.
However, who spent the most cash may not matter, Tahvildaran-Jesswein said. Candidates who have connected with voters by speaking on key issues such as homelessness, traffic, rent control, the environment and education are the ones who will draw out the voters.
“It depends on who can win Santa Monica,” Tahvildaran-Jesswein said. “Brownley has the best ground, but it depends on voter turnout here in Santa Monica.”
Originally published in the Santa Monica Daily Press print edition on June 7, 2006. Read the original PDF.