Santa Monica's local water supplies could fall as much as 4,500 acre-feet short of demand by 2045 under a worst-case growth scenario, according to an updated water master plan city staff will present to the City Council on Tuesday.
The 2026 Sustainable Water Master Plan Update, prepared by the Public Works Department's Water Resources Division, estimates that local sources can currently meet only 80% to 85% of the city's annual water demand on average — well short of the 99% self-sufficiency goal the council set when it adopted the original master plan in 2018. That 2018 plan had aimed to hit the target by 2023, but the timeline slipped to summer 2025 amid COVID-19 pandemic disruptions, a citywide reorganization that cut the Water Conservation Division's staff in half, and financial constraints that delayed expansion of the recycled water network and new groundwater wells.
Staff cautioned that even the current supply estimate carries uncertainty because two of the city's largest groundwater production wells, at the Charnock Well Field, are being replaced and won't be fully operational until the end of 2026.
The council is not being asked to approve funding Tuesday. Instead, staff is seeking direction on a recommended two-tier approach to closing the gap. In the near term — five to 10 years — the city would lean on two measures already folded into the 2025 water rate study: ramping up conservation and efficiency programs under the 2024 Water Conservation Master Plan, and expanding the recycled water distribution system, including exploring direct potable reuse to supplement groundwater supplies.
Longer-term options, to be revisited in five to 10 years, include partnering with regional recycled-water projects — the Metropolitan Water District's Pure Water Southern California program in Carson and the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power's Pure Water Los Angeles program at the Hyperion plant — as well as a standalone seawater desalination facility capable of producing up to 7 million gallons a day. Staff said both of those regional projects aren't expected to come online until after 2035, and desalination technology may still need to mature to become cost-competitive.
Staff also touted completed elements of the 2018 plan, including the Sustainable Water Infrastructure Project, which converts stormwater, urban runoff, wastewater and brackish groundwater into purified water; the restoration of two Olympic Well Field groundwater wells that had been contaminated by industrial pollutants; an efficiency upgrade at the Arcadia Water Treatment Plant; and a citywide rollout of smart water meters. The city secured nearly $40 million in grants and more than $150 million in low-interest financing to help pay for that work, staff said.
Staff is recommending the council find the plan update exempt from further environmental review under the California Environmental Quality Act.
In the rest of Tuesday's meeting, the council will open with commendations for state Sen. Ben Allen and proclamations marking Filipino American History Month and Breast Cancer Awareness Month, along with recognition of outgoing board and commission members. A lengthy consent calendar includes contract awards and modifications for on-call civil engineering, surveying and transportation planning services; a resolution ratifying the 2025 local emergency proclamation on homelessness; acceptance of a federal bulletproof vest grant and a state alcohol enforcement grant for the Police Department; a $4.5 million Proposition 64 public safety grant; and second-reading adoption of ordinances establishing an automated red-light traffic enforcement program and adjusting R1 zoning standards tied to state housing law SB 79. Later items include a review of the city's after-action report on the 2025 Palisades Fire and windstorm, a $1 million grant acceptance from the Wallis Annenberg Legacy Foundation for the Annenberg Community Beach House, and council discussion items covering board and commission appointments and a councilmember-requested $10,000 discretionary allocation for the Off the Hook Santa Monica Seafood Festival. The council will also meet in closed session on several pending litigation matters.