Stores open early
THIRD STREET — Janet Jauregui can identify with the woman in the Mervyns holiday ads who stands outside in the dark, her face pressed against the glass storefront as she chants, “Open, open, open” in anticipation of a big sale.
A bargain hunter who has nearly dispensed with her Christmas list, Jauregui has also anxiously waited outside malls at midnight so that she can grab the latest trends at a substantial discount. With an extended family that includes nephews to spoil, Jauregui needs all the bargains she can find during the holiday rush.
“Are you kidding? The sales at midnight, right after Thanksgiving, those are the best,” Jauregui said Wednesday afternoon as she enjoyed lunch on Third Street Promenade. “You can leave the kids at home with the husband, and after a long day of cooking, go out and get a lot of your shopping done before they even get out of bed.
“And, of course, you hook yourself up too,” Jauregui said with a smile. “You know you’ve always got to get yourself something when you’re out Christmas shopping.”
While she doesn’t plan waking up before dawn this time around, Jauregui will join the 137 million other shoppers around the country who will head to their local retailers this weekend for the official kick-off of the holiday shopping season.
The Friday following Thanksgiving, commonly referred to as “Black Friday,” is when retailers begin to reap large profits. For mom-and-pop outfits, a prosperous Thanksgiving weekend can often make or break them.
“This is where a lot of small retailers move from making red ink entries into their books and start using black,” said Jack Kyser, chief economist for the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp.
“This is where a lot of small retailers move from making red ink entries into their books and start using black,” — JACK KYSER CHIEF ECONOMIST
About 30 percent of the retail industry’s profits come out of the Christmas season, which traditionally run from the end of October to Christmas eve, but with the increased popularity of gift cards — $30 billion in sales in 2005 — the season has been extended to January,and sometimes February.
Last season, retailers of furniture, apparel, electronics and other merchandise saw sales of more than $239 billion, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC).
“But this is more than just about retail stores,” Kyser said.“Yes, we are selling things, but we’re making things too. We have a strong apparel industry here, furniture and other home decorative items. It works at every level for us. In the month of October, the port of Los Angeles handled over 800,000 containers, a record for any U.S. port. To move that much of merchandise means you have a variety of people doing a variety of things.”
The average household is expected to spend $449 on gifts during the holidays, down moderately from last year’s estimate of $466, according to The Conference Board, a research organization specializing in consumer confidence. Slightly more than 31 percent of households will spend $500 or more, with 36 percent spending $200 to $500 and the remaining 33 percent planning to spend less than $200.
Online purchasing will rise, the board found. About 35 percent of all consumers will buy holiday gifts on the Internet, up from 33 percent a year ago. Books top the list of online gifts, with 40 percent saying they will purchase them over the Internet. Toys and games came in second, followed by apparel and footwear. Music and DVDs will also be popular items.
That may sound promising, but last year’s sales were down because of the devastating affects of the “three ugly sisters, (Hurricanes) Rita, Katrina and Wilma,” said Ken Goldstein, an economist with the board.
“Last year was nothing to write home about, especially if your paycheck depended on the retail trade,” Goldstein said. “Consumer confidence is still high, in the low 90s and not down to the 60s like on the brink of a recession, but there is still some concern that the economy is not getting any better. The fear is we’ve slowed and we’re not going to see any improvement for a while so people are going to be frugal.”
“You are definitely going to see smarter shoppers this year who may in fact wait until the last minute for the best deals,” Goldstein added.
With a low unemployment rate of 4.4 percent and a gradual growth in wages and disposable personal income, sales could be robust, however, Goldstein points to a lackluster job market, a cooling housing market and unstable gas prices as deciding factors.
Others believe consumers will spend this season.
“We’re expecting a lot of shoppers (Friday),” said Jennifer Nemanich, an assistant manager of Barnes & Noble Booksellers on the promenade. “This last week and weekend we’ve seen a huge flow of foot traffic and we are expecting an excellent season. Gift cards are more popular now so we really won’t know the impact until later but people have been buying a lot of box sets, a lot of DVD collections for TV like ‘Seinfeld’ and ‘Family Guy,’ and then there’s the big coffee table books.”
Patrice Duker with the ICSC said while Black Friday will be busy,“if it doesn’t go fantastically, it doesn’t mean the season is over.”
With Thanksgiving coming earlier this year, the traditional shopping season has been expanded to 31 days, considered by industry insiders as a long season, Duker said.
“It’s a long weekend, a great weekend to shop, but in reality it makes up only 9 to 10 percent of total holiday sales,” Duker said. “So far shoppers haven’t cut back on spending throughout the year so there is no sign that will stop now.”
Rob York, a consultant for the Bayside District Corp., the entity which manages downtown with City Hall, believes Santa Monica will perform well overall, with City Hall collecting large sums of sales tax revenue to help fund city services.
Last year, City Hall collected nearly $32 million in sales tax, making up just over 14 percent of the general fund, which supports police, fire, street cleaning and other services.
“We’ve got some new players in town, a very strong mix of uses,” York said. “I think downtown will do well. It is a different animal than the other shopping districts in town like Montana (Avenue) or Main Street. It really is a regional draw with a strong local following.”
There is some concern about Santa Monica Place. The Frank Gehry-designed mall lost a major anchor in Robinsons-May earlier this year and has several empty stores as it goes through a long, and drawn-out redevelopment process.
“We still feel we have a lot of quality stores here like Forever 21, Bath & Body Works, Macy’s, that we will be able to offer something for everyone,” said Victoria Trimble, a spokesperson for the mall. “We have some pretty fantastic programs going on this year that are really focused on the community.
I’m hoping this will garner interest.”
Many retailers are pulling out all the stops to attract shoppers, offering larger discounts and store credit along with free gifts and extended hours.
“The difference this year (than last) is we have more shopping centers opening early,” Duker of ICSC said. “Especially in the world of outlets, stores are opening up on midnight on Black Friday. Most malls are having early openings, like 5 or 6 a.m. Some folks tried this last year and it obviously proved successful so we are seeing it across the board.”
Along the promenade and in Santa Monica Place several stores are opening an hour early — 9 a.m. — to accommodate an anticipated rush of shoppers. Banana Republic is giving customers a $25 gift card for every $150 people spend in the seven days following Thanksgiving. At Santa Monica Place Bath & Body Works is opening the doors at 8 a.m.
At Circuit City on Fourth Street and Santa Monica Boulevard, doors will open at 5 a.m., an hour earlier than last year. Flat-screen televisions, video games and other electronics will be on sale.
Despite the deals, Joanna Jeffs said she will probably spend the weekend at home with family.
“Perhaps it’s my English background, but I don’t really put much of an emphasis on buying gifts,” Jeffs said. “We’re still planning on spending about $40 to $70 per person on our list and we have about 15 people. It’s a lot of money, but its not spending on a gargantuan scale. Our finances are OK, but you don’t want to over do it.”
Originally published in the Santa Monica Daily Press print edition on November 24, 2006. Read the original PDF.